Ott, Lesley: NASA GSFC GMAO (Project Lead)
Collatz, George (Jim): NASA GSFC - retired (Co-Investigator)
Kawa, Stephan (Randy): NASA GSFC (Co-Investigator)
Oda, Tomohiro (Tom): USRA (Co-Investigator)
Poulter, Benjamin (Ben): NASA GSFC (Co-Investigator)
Chatterjee, Abhishek: NASA JPL (Participant)
Project Funding:
2014 - 2017
NRA: 2014 NASA: Carbon Monitoring System
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
This proposal is to extend NASA GSFC’s contributions to the Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) from the Flux Pilot Project and CMS Phase One. The proposed work will draw on the capabilities of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models to deliver mature flux and concentration data products in support of CMS objectives. The proposed work consists of four main components: (i) production of observationally constrained atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land biosphere fluxes and uncertainties for the past decade; (ii) generation of atmospheric forward model ensembles to quantify errors in atmospheric CO2 simulations due to both flux and transport uncertainty; (iii) incorporation of GOSAT, OCO-2, and in situ observations to produce high-resolution global atmospheric CO and CO2 concentration reanalyses; (iv) evaluation of the sensitivity of inversion flux estimates to assumptions of prior flux uncertainty and transport uncertainty using multiple inversion methodologies. A central component of these efforts is the use of meteorological forcing provided by NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2) to produce a consistent picture of the interactions between weather, climate, and the carbon cycle. Flux estimates will be improved through improvements in input datasets and process representation and new methods of uncertainty quantification will be employed to deliver reliable flux estimates with associated uncertainties. Land biosphere fluxes from the CASA-GFED model, currently funded separately, will be further updated here to utilize new vegetation fluorescence, MERRA-2 soil moisture, and fire products. The ocean, land, and fossil fuel flux uncertainties will be propagated forward in the GEOS Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) to examine their impact on calculated CO2 mixing ratios and comparisons with observations. An ensemble of GEOS-5 simulations with perturbations to subgrid transport processes will be used to quantify the impact of transport uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates and fluxes will be combined with satellite and in situ CO and CO2 observations to produce realistic trace gas reanalyses for use by the carbon monitoring community. Finally, we will examine the issue of error propagation through multiple inversion modeling frameworks to better understand the constraint placed on carbon flux by existing and future atmospheric CO2 measurements. All products will be hosted on NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) servers with simple download and visualization options provided through GMAO’s website.
Publications:
Wang, J. S., Kawa, S. R., Collatz, G. J., Sasakawa, M., Gatti, L. V., Machida, T., Liu, Y., Manyin, M. E. 2018. A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 18(15), 11097-11124. DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-11097-2018
Gregg, W. W., N. W. Casey, and C. S. Rousseaux, 2013, Global surface ocean carbon estimates in a model forced by MERRA, NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA TM-2013-104606, Vol. 31, 39 pp.
Gregg, W. W., Casey, N. W., Rousseaux, C. S. 2014. Sensitivity of simulated global ocean carbon flux estimates to forcing by reanalysis products. Ocean Modelling. 80, 24-35. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.05.002
Ott, L. E., Pawson, S., Collatz, G. J., Gregg, W. W., Menemenlis, D., Brix, H., Rousseaux, C. S., Bowman, K. W., Liu, J., Eldering, A., Gunson, M. R., Kawa, S. R. 2015. Assessing the magnitude of CO2flux uncertainty in atmospheric CO2records using products from NASA's Carbon Monitoring Flux Pilot Project. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 120(2), 734-765. DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022411
Oda, T., Maksyutov, S. 2011. A very high-resolution (1 kmx1 km) global fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emission inventory derived using a point source database and satellite observations of nighttime lights. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 11(2), 543-556. DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-543-2011
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):
