Wethey, David (Dave): University of South Carolina (Project Lead)
Project Funding:
2011 - 2017
NRA: 2010 NASA: Climate and Biological Response: Research and Applications
Funded by NASA
Abstract:
This proposal builds upon our previous NASA-sponsored research where we developed biophysical heat budget models to successfully predict the body temperatures of marine organisms using NASA remote sensing products as data inputs. Like most other approaches to exploring the determinants of current and future species range boundaries, our prior research focused largely the role of lethal limits. However, recent studies have emphasized that understanding sublethal patterns of environmental stressors may play a key role in understanding the ecological effects of climate change. First, some species may be close to the edge al changes in temperature may lead to large changes in distribution. Second, recent studies have shown that range limits are not always set by short-duration, lethal exposures, but instead by more chronic exposures that lead to irreversible physiological damage. Predicting the likely ecological impacts of climate change demands that we move beyond the role of lethal limits in setting species range boundaries. The use of NASA Remote Sensing products to predict global patterns and changes of animal body temperature, through a combination of biophysical and physiological models allows an unprecedented opportunity to forecast changes in physiological performance within the current and future geographic ranges of the major constituents of coastal marine ecosystems. Our modeling approach is flexible, allowing future developments in remote sensing technologies and regional or global climate modeling to be rapidly incorporated. Finally and importantly, we base our approach on a general model of the effects of body temperature on physiological performance and tolerance that is applicable to virtually any organism in any habitat and thus we anticipate our results to have wide application in developing approaches to forecasting biological responses to changing climate. Our proposed research is focused on the following questions. All are independent of specific system i.e. the results and approach are generally applicable. Are models validated for one geographic region or time period applicable to all other regions of the species range, and are they temporally invariant? A fundamental assumption of most climate change research is that determinants of range boundaries can be extrapolated in space and time; yet, our results suggest that such stationarity or niche conservatism may be false. Can we predict when models of species geographic distributions will fail when extended to other spatial or temporal domains? We predict that models of distribution will frequently fail if the species has physiological performance curves suggestive of significant thermal stress well before the species lethal thermal limit. Does a combination of time-integrated performance metrics such as productivity with thermal lethal limits increase the success of models validated through hindcasts and nowcasts in one geographic region when extended to other spatial and temporal domains? We will test this prediction using bivalve species, particularly those of commercial interest. Datasets of distribution and abundance for over one hundred years are available with which to test this prediction through hindcasts and nowcasts from our body temperature models based on NASA R/S products.
Publications:
BUDAEVA, N., FAUCHALD, K. 2011. Phylogeny of the Diopatra generic complex with a revision of Paradiopatra Ehlres, 1887 (Polychaeta: Onuphidae). Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society. 163(2), 319-436. DOI: 10.1111/j.1096-3642.2011.00701.x
Burnett, N. P., Seabra, R., de Pirro, M., Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A., Helmuth, B., Zippay, M. L., Sara, G., Monaco, C., Lima, F. P. 2013. An improved noninvasive method for measuring heartbeat of intertidal animals. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods. 11(2), 91-100. DOI: 10.4319/lom.2013.11.91
Chennu, A., Volkenborn, N., de Beer, D., Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A., Polerecky, L. 2015. Effects of Bioadvection by Arenicola marina on Microphytobenthos in Permeable Sediments. PLOS ONE. 10(7), e0134236. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134236
Colvard, N. B., Carrington, E., Helmuth, B. 2014. Temperature-dependent photosynthesis in the intertidal alga Fucus gardneri and sensitivity to ongoing climate change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 458, 6-12. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2014.05.001
Crickenberger, S., Wethey, D. S. 2017. Reproductive physiology, temperature and biogeography: the role of fertilization in determining the distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides. Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom. 98(6), 1411-1424. DOI: 10.1017/s0025315417000364
Crickenberger, S., Wethey, D. S. 2018. Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift. Global Change Biology. 24(8), 3804-3819. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14300
Dominguez, R., Vazquez, E., Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Peteiro, L. G., Macho, G., Olabarria, C. 2020. Sublethal responses of four commercially important bivalves to low salinity. Ecological Indicators. 111, 106031. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106031
Fly, E. K., Hilbish, T. J. 2012. Physiological energetics and biogeographic range limits of three congeneric mussel species. Oecologia. 172(1), 35-46. DOI: 10.1007/s00442-012-2486-6
Fly, E. K., Hilbish, T. J., Wethey, D. S., Rognstad, R. L. 2015. Physiology and Biogeography: The Response of European Mussels (Mytilusspp.) to Climate Change. American Malacological Bulletin. 33(1), 136-149. DOI: 10.4003/006.033.0111
Fly, E. K., Monaco, C. J., Pincebourde, S., Tullis, A. 2012. The influence of intertidal location and temperature on the metabolic cost of emersion in Pisaster ochraceus. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 422-423, 20-28. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2012.04.007
Helmuth, B., Choi, F., Matzelle, A., Torossian, J. L., Morello, S. L., Mislan, K. A. S., Yamane, L., Strickland, D., Szathmary, P. L., Gilman, S. E., Tockstein, A., Hilbish, T. J., Burrows, M. T., Power, A. M., Gosling, E., Mieszkowska, N., Harley, C. D., Nishizaki, M., Carrington, E., Menge, B., Petes, L., Foley, M. M., Johnson, A., Poole, M., Noble, M. M., Richmond, E. L., Robart, M., Robinson, J., Sapp, J., Sones, J., Broitman, B. R., Denny, M. W., Mach, K. J., Miller, L. P., O'Donnell, M., Ross, P., Hofmann, G. E., Zippay, M., Blanchette, C., Macfarlan, J. A., Carpizo-Ituarte, E., Ruttenberg, B., Pena Mejia, C. E., McQuaid, C. D., Lathlean, J., Monaco, C. J., Nicastro, K. R., Zardi, G. 2016. Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors. Scientific Data. 3(1). DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2016.87
Helmuth, B., Russell, B. D., Connell, S. D., Dong, Y., Harley, C. D., Lima, F. P., Sara, G., Williams, G. A., Mieszkowska, N. 2014. Beyond long-term averages: making biological sense of a rapidly changing world. Climate Change Responses. 1(1). DOI: 10.1186/s40665-014-0006-0
Herrera, M., Wethey, D., Vazquez, E., Macho, G. 2019. Climate change implications for reproductive success: temperature effect on penis development in the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 610, 109-123. DOI: 10.3354/meps12832
Ibez, L. E. 1982. Hierarchical quark and lepton masses in grand unified theories. Zeitschrift fr Physik C Particles and Fields. 12(1), 29-33. DOI: 10.1007/bf01475727
Kish, N. E., Helmuth, B., Wethey, D. S. 2016. Physiologically grounded metrics of model skill: a case study estimating heat stress in intertidal populations. Conservation Physiology. 4(1), cow038. DOI: 10.1093/conphys/cow038
Lima, F. P., Gomes, F., Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Seabra, M. I., Cruz, T., Santos, A. M., Hilbish, T. J. 2015. Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits. Global Change Biology. 22(1), 254-263. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13115
Lima, F. P., Wethey, D. S. 2012. Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming. Nature Communications. 3(1). DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1713
Macho, G., Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Vazquez, E. 2016. Impacts of Sublethal and Lethal High Temperatures on Clams Exploited in European Fisheries. Journal of Shellfish Research. 35(2), 405-419. DOI: 10.2983/035.035.0215
Marshall, D. J., Rezende, E. L., Baharuddin, N., Choi, F., Helmuth, B. 2015. Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails. Ecology and Evolution. 5(24), 5905-5919. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1785
Matzelle, A., Montalto, V., Sara, G., Zippay, M., Helmuth, B. 2014. Dynamic Energy Budget model parameter estimation for the bivalve Mytilus californianus: Application of the covariation method. Journal of Sea Research. 94, 105-110. DOI: 10.1016/j.seares.2014.01.009
Mislan, K. A. S., Helmuth, B., Wethey, D. S. 2014. Geographical variation in climatic sensitivity of intertidal mussel zonation. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 23(7), 744-756. DOI: 10.1111/geb.12160
Mislan, K. A. S., Wethey, D. S. 2015. A biophysical basis for patchy mortality during heat waves. Ecology. 96(4), 902-907. DOI: 10.1890/14-1219.1
Monaco, C. J., Wethey, D. S., Helmuth, B. 2014. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Model for the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus. PLoS ONE. 9(8), e104658. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104658
Monaco, C. J., Wethey, D. S., Helmuth, B. 2016. Thermal sensitivity and the role of behavior in driving an intertidal predator-prey interaction. Ecological Monographs. 86(4), 429-447. DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1230
Montalto, V., Sara, G., Ruti, P. M., Dell'Aquila, A., Helmuth, B. 2014. Testing the effects of temporal data resolution on predictions of the effects of climate change on bivalves. Ecological Modelling. 278, 1-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.019
Oliver, H., Rognstad, R., Wethey, D. 2015. Using meteorological reanalysis data for multi-decadal hindcasts of larval connectivity in the coastal ocean. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 530, 47-62. DOI: 10.3354/meps11300
Price, J. R., Lakshmi, V. 2014. Growth Studies ofMytilus californianusUsing Satellite Surface Temperatures and Chlorophyll Data for Coastal Oregon in: Remote Sensing of the Terrestrial Water Cycle: Geophysical Monograph Series. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 427-437. DOI: 10.1002/9781118872086.ch26
Rognstad, R. L., Hilbish, T. J. 2014. Temperature-induced variation in the survival of brooded embryos drives patterns of recruitment and abundance in Semibalanus balanoides. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 461, 357-363. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2014.09.012
Rognstad, R. L., Wethey, D. S., Oliver, H., Hilbish, T. J. 2018. Connectivity modeling and graph theory analysis predict recolonization in transient populations. Journal of Marine Systems. 183, 13-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2018.03.002
Rognstad, R., Wethey, D., Hilbish, T. 2014. Connectivity and population repatriation: limitations of climate and input into the larval pool. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 495, 175-183. DOI: 10.3354/meps10590
Rongstad, O. J. 1965. Calcium-45 Labeling of Mammals for Use in Population Studies. Health Physics. 11(12), 1543-1556. DOI: 10.1097/00004032-196512000-00031
Schrimpf, M. B., Che-Castaldo, C., Lynch, H. J. 2019. Regional breeding bird assessment of the Antarctic Peninsula. Polar Biology. 43(2), 111-122. DOI: 10.1007/s00300-019-02613-1
Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Santos, A. M., Gomes, F., Lima, F. P. 2016. Equatorial range limits of an intertidal ectotherm are more linked to water than air temperature. Global Change Biology. 22(10), 3320-3331. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13321
Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Santos, A. M., Lima, F. P. 2015. Understanding complex biogeographic responses to climate change. Scientific Reports. 5(1). DOI: 10.1038/srep12930
Sousa, L. L., Seabra, R., Wethey, D. S., Xavier, R., Queiroz, N., Zenboudji, S., Lima, F. P. 2012. Fate of a climate-driven colonisation: Demography of newly established populations of the limpet Patella rustica Linnaeus, 1758, in northern Portugal. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 438, 68-75. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2012.09.005
Sutton, G. L., Kim, P. 2010. Laser in situ keratomileusis in 2010 - a review. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology. 38(2), 192-210. DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9071.2010.02227.x
Toscano, B. J., Monaco, C. J. 2015. Testing for relationships between individual crab behavior and metabolic rate across ecological contexts. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology. 69(8), 1343-1351. DOI: 10.1007/s00265-015-1947-4
Volkenborn, N., Meile, C., Polerecky, L., Pilditch, C. A., Norkko, A., Norkko, J., Hewitt, J. E., Thrush, S. F., Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A. 2012. Intermittent bioirrigation and oxygen dynamics in permeable sediments: An experimental and modeling study of three tellinid bivalves. Journal of Marine Research. 70(6), 794-823. DOI: 10.1357/002224012806770955
Volkenborn, N., Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Polerecky, L. 2019. Bioirrigation in: Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences. Elsevier, 663-670. DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.09525-7
Wares, J. P., Crickenberger, S., Govindarajan, A. F., Hamrick, J. L., Skoczen, K. M., Trapnell, D. W., Wethey, D. S. 2018. The cryptic population biology of Chthamalus fragilis Darwin, 1854 (Cirripedia, Thoracica) on the Atlantic coast of North America. Journal of Crustacean Biology. 38(6), 754-764. DOI: 10.1093/jcbiol/ruy070
Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A. 2022. Climate change and Arenicola marina: Heat waves and the southern limit of an ecosystem engineer. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 276, 108015. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108015
Wethey, D. S., Woodin, S. A., Berke, S. K., Dubois, S. F. 2016. Climate hindcasts: exploring the disjunct distribution of
Diopatra biscayensis. Invertebrate Biology. 135(4), 345-356. DOI: 10.1111/ivb.12147
Woodin, S. A. 1981. Disturbance and Community Structure in a Shallow Water Sand Flat. Ecology. 62(4), 1052-1066. DOI: 10.2307/1937004
Woodin, S. A., Hilbish, T. J., Helmuth, B., Jones, S. J., Wethey, D. S. 2013. Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail. Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.680
Woodin, S. A., Volkenborn, N., Pilditch, C. A., Lohrer, A. M., Wethey, D. S., Hewitt, J. E., Thrush, S. F. 2016. Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process. Scientific Reports. 6(1). DOI: 10.1038/srep26678
Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Dubois, S. F. 2014. Population structure and spread of the polychaete Diopatra biscayensis along the French Atlantic coast: Human-assisted transport by-passes larval dispersal. Marine Environmental Research. 102, 110-121. DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.05.006
Woodin, S. A., Wethey, D. S., Olabarria, C., Vazquez, E., Dominguez, R., Macho, G., Peteiro, L. 2020. Behavioral responses of three venerid bivalves to fluctuating salinity stress. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 522, 151256. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2019.151256
More details may be found in the following project profile(s):