Project Funding: 2011 - 2015

NRA: 2010 NASA: Climate and Biological Response: Research and Applications   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Understanding the effects of climate change on global ecology is a required to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of species, and to be able to identify ecosystems and landscapes most at risk to climate change in the future. To date, most approaches to understanding ecological effects of climate change on species have used individual or limited numbers of populations of a species, for example, using Niche modeling, or time-series analysis of individual populations. While useful, we argue these approaches are fundamentally limited because they do not address species responses at the most appropriate scale for global climate analyses that of the global distribution of a species. Niche models generally predict uniform distributional shifts, but such predictions do not match observations of historic (i.e., Pleistocene) or current species range shifts. This is because they ignore several key components of species responses to climate change; 1) species interactions, 2) spatial/temporal variation in climatic downscaling to local population dynamics, and 3) climate driven synchrony and asynchrony in population dynamics. Therefore, the goal of our proposal is to use extensive datasets for two contrasting large mammalian species over the entire range of their global and North American distribution to understand the effects of climate change on global scale population dynamics. We call our approach the Global Population Dynamics approach. The main components of the Global Population Dynamics approach are to 1) construct historic and project future environmental niche models based on NASA remotely sensed datasets to evaluate the effect of potential climate change on Elk (Cervus) and Caribou and Reindeer (Rangifer) throughout their circumpolar distribution; 2) evaluate the effects of biotic (i.e., vegetation biomass, predation) and abiotic (i.e, climate) on ungulate population dynamics using time-series of population counts, and 3) understand the degree of spatial synchrony between populations of elk and caribou across global scales and how changes in climate/vegetation synchrony drives population synchrony. To answer these questions we will use global-scale datasets on the distribution of elk and caribou (broad scale telemetry location datasets), combined with one of the most extensive sets of abundance datasets including >100 time series of these species. We will then address our research objectives by developing niche and time-series population-models using matching spatial-temporal time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices from combined AVHRR-MODIS and MODIS NPP time series ( from 1981-the present), MODIS snowcover and landcover, as well as global time series of climate data. Using the MODIS NPP 17A2/A3 dataset will allow us to address the effects of climate itself on ungulates as well as the effects of climate on terrestrial vegetation for the first time. Addressing questions 2 and 3 will then feed back to objective 1 to relax the assumptions of uniform climatic response of species given spatial drivers of asynchrony, and extend the naïve predictions of niche models for these two well studied, but contrasting, species. Finally, we will be able to extend our adjusted Niche model projections to potential future effects of climate change using the most recent CMIP-5 climate model outputs developed for the 5th IPCC assessment. While data-hungry, our Global Population Dynamics approach will set the stage for understanding the challenges of interpreting local-scale climatic analyses for these and other species, and establish a firm understanding of climate change on the distribution and abundance of these two ecologically and economically important species.

Publications:

Ahrestani, F. S., Hebblewhite, M., Post, E. 2013. The importance of observation versus process error in analyses of global ungulate populations. Scientific Reports. 3(1). DOI: 10.1038/srep03125

Ahrestani, F. S., Smith, W. K., Hebblewhite, M., Running, S., Post, E. 2016. Variation in stability of elk and red deer populations with abiotic and biotic factors at the species-distribution scale. Ecology. 97(11), 3184-3194. DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1540

Brodie, J. F., Giordano, A. J., Dickson, B., Hebblewhite, M., Bernard, H., Mohd-Azlan, J., Anderson, J., Ambu, L. 2014. Evaluating multispecies landscape connectivity in a threatened tropical mammal community. Conservation Biology. 29(1), 122-132. DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12337

Brodie, J., Johnson, H., Mitchell, M., Zager, P., Proffitt, K., Hebblewhite, M., Kauffman, M., Johnson, B., Bissonette, J., Bishop, C., Gude, J., Herbert, J., Hersey, K., Hurley, M., Lukacs, P. M., McCorquodale, S., McIntire, E., Nowak, J., Sawyer, H., Smith, D., White, P. J. 2013. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America. Journal of Applied Ecology. 50(2), 295-305. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12044

DeCesare, N. J., Hebblewhite, M., Bradley, M., Hervieux, D., Neufeld, L., Musiani, M. 2013. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival. Journal of Animal Ecology. 83(2), 343-352. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12144

DeCesare, N. J., Hebblewhite, M., Lukacs, P. M., Hervieux, D. 2015. Evaluating sources of censoring and truncation in telemetry-based survival data. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 80(1), 138-148. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.991

Eacker, D. R., Hebblewhite, M., Proffitt, K. M., Jimenez, B. S., Mitchell, M. S., Robinson, H. S. 2016. Annual elk calf survival in a multiple carnivore system. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 80(8), 1345-1359. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21133

Eggeman, S. L., Hebblewhite, M., Bohm, H., Whittington, J., Merrill, E. H. 2016. Behavioural flexibility in migratory behaviour in a long-lived large herbivore. Journal of Animal Ecology. 85(3), 785-797. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12495

Goldberg, J. F., Hebblewhite, M., Bardsley, J. 2014. Consequences of a Refuge for the Predator-Prey Dynamics of a Wolf-Elk System in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. PLoS ONE. 9(3), e91417. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091417

Greene, L., Hebblewhite, M., Stephenson, T. R. 2012. Short-term vegetation response to wildfire in the eastern Sierra Nevada: Implications for recovering an endangered ungulate. Journal of Arid Environments. 87, 118-128. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.06.001

Hebblewhite, M. 2013. Consequences of ratio-dependent predation by wolves for elk population dynamics. Population Ecology. 55(4), 511-522. DOI: 10.1007/s10144-013-0384-3

Hurley, M. A., Hebblewhite, M., Gaillard, J., Dray, S., Taylor, K. A., Smith, W. K., Zager, P., Bonenfant, C. 2014. Functional analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index curves reveals overwinter mule deer survival is driven by both spring and autumn phenology. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 369(1643), 20130196. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0196

Hurley, M. A., Hebblewhite, M., Lukacs, P. M., Nowak, J. J., Gaillard, J., Bonenfant, C. 2017. Regional-scale models for predicting overwinter survival of juvenile ungulates. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 81(3), 364-378. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21211

Lukacs, P. M., Mitchell, M. S., Hebblewhite, M., Johnson, B. K., Johnson, H., Kauffman, M., Proffitt, K. M., Zager, P., Brodie, J., Hersey, K., Holland, A. A., Hurley, M., McCorquodale, S., Middleton, A., Nordhagen, M., Nowak, J. J., Walsh, D. P., White, P. J. 2018. Factors influencing elk recruitment across ecotypes in the Western United States. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 82(4), 698-710. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21438

Lukacs, P. M., Mitchell, M. S., Hebblewhite, M., Johnson, B. K., Johnson, H., Kauffman, M., Proffitt, K. M., Zager, P., Brodie, J., Hersey, K., Holland, A. A., Hurley, M., McCorquodale, S., Middleton, A., Nordhagen, M., Nowak, J. J., Walsh, D. P., White, P. J. 2018. Factors influencing elk recruitment across ecotypes in the Western United States. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 82(4), 698-710. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21438

Mills, L. S., Zimova, M., Oyler, J., Running, S., Abatzoglou, J. T., Lukacs, P. M. 2013. Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110(18), 7360-7365. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222724110

Peters, W., Hebblewhite, M., DeCesare, N., Cagnacci, F., Musiani, M. 2012. Resource separation analysis with moose indicates threats to caribou in human altered landscapes. Ecography. 36(4), 487-498. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07733.x

Peters, W., Hebblewhite, M., Mysterud, A., Eacker, D., Hewison, A. J. M., Linnell, J. D. C., Focardi, S., Urbano, F., De Groeve, J., Gehr, B., Heurich, M., Jarnemo, A., Kjellander, P., Kroschel, M., Morellet, N., Pedrotti, L., Reinecke, H., Sandfort, R., Sonnichsen, L., Sunde, P., Cagnacci, F. 2018. Large herbivore migration plasticity along environmental gradients in Europe: life-history traits modulate forage effects. Oikos. 128(3), 416-429. DOI: 10.1111/oik.05588

Peters, W., Hebblewhite, M., Mysterud, A., Spitz, D., Focardi, S., Urbano, F., Morellet, N., Heurich, M., Kjellander, P., Linnell, J. D. C., Cagnacci, F. 2017. Migration in geographic and ecological space by a large herbivore. Ecological Monographs. 87(2), 297-320. DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1250

Polfus, J. L., Heinemeyer, K., Hebblewhite, M. 2013. Comparing traditional ecological knowledge and western science woodland caribou habitat models. The Journal of Wildlife Management. 78(1), 112-121. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.643

Proffitt, K. M., DeVoe, J., Barker, K., Durham, R., Hayes, T., Hebblewhite, M., Jourdonnais, C., Ramsey, P., Shamhart, J. 2019. A century of changing fire management alters ungulate forage in a wildfire-dominated landscape. Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research. 92(5), 523-537. DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpz017

Proffitt, K. M., Hebblewhite, M., Peters, W., Hupp, N., Shamhart, J. 2016. Linking landscape-scale differences in forage to ungulate nutritional ecology. Ecological Applications. 26(7), 2156-2174. DOI: 10.1002/eap.1370

Ramler, J. P., Hebblewhite, M., Kellenberg, D., Sime, C. 2014. Crying Wolf? A Spatial Analysis of Wolf Location and Depredations on Calf Weight. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 96(3), 631-656. DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aat100

St. Peter, J., Hogland, J., Hebblewhite, M., Hurley, M., Hupp, N., Proffitt, K. 2018. Linking Phenological Indices from Digital Cameras in Idaho and Montana to MODIS NDVI. Remote Sensing. 10(10), 1612. DOI: 10.3390/rs10101612

Steenweg, R., Hebblewhite, M., Kays, R., Ahumada, J., Fisher, J. T., Burton, C., Townsend, S. E., Carbone, C., Rowcliffe, J. M., Whittington, J., Brodie, J., Royle, J. A., Switalski, A., Clevenger, A. P., Heim, N., Rich, L. N. 2016. Scaling-up camera traps: monitoring the planet's biodiversity with networks of remote sensors. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 15(1), 26-34. DOI: 10.1002/fee.1448

Weckworth, B. V., Musiani, M., DeCesare, N. J., McDevitt, A. D., Hebblewhite, M., Mariani, S. 2013. Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 280(1769), 20131756. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1756

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Biological Diversity & Ecological Conservation (BDEC) Project Profile