Project Funding: 2011 - 2014

NRA: 2009 NASA: Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science   

Funded by NASA

Abstract:
Understanding shifts in regional hydrological cycles due to climate change is one of the most fundamental, yet poorly quantified, challenges facing society today. Of particular interest to both the scientific community and to society at large are changes in patterns, intensity, and/or frequency of extreme precipitation events. Unforeseen changes in precipitation extremes could lead to catastrophic economic losses, near-term and long-term shifts in anthropogenic and natural land cover, and can act as a trigger for disturbances such as landslides, fires, and floods. To accurately monitor and faithfully predict the risks of future events requires a thorough understanding of the coupled system of observational analyses and model development. The key to breakthroughs in predictive capabilities lies in an integrated and interdisciplinary approach. We propose here a study that integrates remote sensing and ground based observational data of precipitation, topography, land cover and land use with global and regional climate models and landscape stability models. The approach will fuse existing analytical models of Earth systems with newly-developed data-driven models capable of producing high temporal- and spatial-resolution projections. The ultimate goal of the proposed effort is to assess how climate change will impact extreme precipitation and landslide hazards, and what risks those events will pose for natural and human systems in the future. To achieve this goal, we will develop a probabilistic model of climate-driven precipitation extreme responses, and explore a range of expected climate change parameters to determine statistically likely event scenarios in the near- and long-term future. Our results will help to formulate recommendations for decision makers as to how best to reduce the risks associated with these natural hazards under a given climate change scenario. The project will bring together specialists in the areas of climate change, precipitation, landscape hazards, human response and data mining into one focused study, and will allow datasets that would otherwise be explored independently to be used in concert to address a larger scientific challenge.

2013 NASA Terrestrial Ecology Science Team Meeting Poster(s)

• Assessing the Impact of Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events on Shallow Landslide Abundance, Location, and Size   --   (Dino Bellugi, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, Natalya Markuzon, Paul A O’Gorman, Taylor J. Perron, John Regan, Adam Schlosser, John West)   [abstract]   [poster]

More details may be found in the following project profile(s):

• NASA Terrestrial Ecology (TE) Project Profile